Conclusion

During the recent time period, the demographic development in the SR did not deviate from the expected frameworks, maybe only except for fertility. The ongoing decrease of fertility, when rather the turning-point in its development has been expected, is undoubtedly surprising. Mainly the development in 2001, when the fertility decreased by more than 7%, was unexpected. Other demographic processes have been developing more or less as expected. The slowdown of the decrease of nuptiality, lasting for several years, culminated in 2002, when the nuptiality increased for the first time after a longer time period. The growth of divorce continued with an increased intensity. The current divorce rate is in comparison with the year 2000 higher by 34.4%. The decrease of induced abortion has slowed down, what is however logical, because the remarkable decrease, which was registered during nineties could not go on lingeringly with the same intensity. It seems that the level of induced abortion has approached the border, below which it will fall only very slowly. Also the decreasing tendency in the mortality development has been maintained. In case of men, the decrease of mortality in 2005 was even more intensive as compared to the previous time period, due to which the difference between the life expectancy at birth for men and women decreased to the lowest level during the last 20 years. In the area of migration, no significant changes occurred, at least in connection to the official data. According to them, the SR is still maintaining the positive net migration at the level of several hundreds people per year (net migration in 2005 was 2 874 peoples). However, the reality is undoubtedly different and the estimates speak about the yearly migration shortage at the level of 3-4 thousand people. Also the increasing of the mean age of betrothed couples at marriage and the increasing of the mean age of parents at birth was ongoing. The share of children born out of wedlock has increased more than twofold as compared to 1990; currently each fifth child is born by an unmarried woman.

The consequence of the mentioned demographic development could only be the slowdown of the population reproduction. The year 2001 will be recorded in history as the first year when more people died than were born in Slovakia, while the natural population decrease continued also in 2002 and 2003. The value of natural decrease was in these years at the level of only several hundreds of people, thus, the overall increase of population was maintained thanks to the migration increase. The overall yearly increase of population of the SR has been lower by 1000 people since 1997 and it can be expected that also during the forthcoming 15-20 years the stagnation of the number of population will continue approximately at current levels. The period of stagnation will be replaced after 2020 by the period of the decrease of the population number, which according to estimates will last minimally 50 years and which will bring in the decrease of Slovak population down to the level of 4,5-4,8 million.

More remarkable consequences of current and expected development are the changes in the population structure and households. The structure of population by marital status is changing - the share of people living in marriage is decreasing to the prejudice of single, divorced and widowed people. The number of cohabitations is increasing; data for census indicate that the increase during the last ten years is roughly 30 %. The structure of families and households is changing as well as their average size. The share of complete families in the total number of households has decreased to the prejudice of incomplete families and households of singles. The increase of households of single persons by 37 % during the last decade means that currently each third citizen of the SR consists of a single person household, thus, is living alone or at least is economically managing only him/her.

The change in the age structure of population, which appears as the ageing of population, is to be considered as the most serious structural demographic consequence. At the same time, it is the most remarkable consequence of the demographic development at all. The ongoing process of ageing, which will noticeably accelerate after 2020, will significantly influence the functioning of society. The impacts of ageing on economy, health-care system and on the social security system will undoubtedly belong among the most serious problems of the 21st century.

One always has to be aware that the considerations on the future development of population are based on the current "state of art" and unexpected changes in the horizon of several decades are nothing extraordinary in the demographic development. The uncertainty of the future development is higher also by the fact that the transformation period in Slovakia has not been finalised yet. In the next year we shall be faced with the expansion of the EU and a big question mark will be also the future development of migration in the world. Basic trends, i.e. decreasing of the population number and population ageing, are in the horizon of next decades irreversible. However, their intensity will depend on many factors. In the formation of the future population development also the government should play a more active role, although its possibilities in this direction are restricted. Mainly measures creating the conditions for the establishment and functioning of families, in which more children will be born, are in question. Not only tangible measures might take place. Also the social climate, which can increase the social prestige of family and children, is very important.